Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 26.926723 29.848330 33.183419 37.327149 42.418511 48.584676 56.808174
2025-02-23 22.597179 26.237904 30.754979 36.956792 45.585284 57.773123 77.677116
2025-03-02 19.944017 23.946233 29.230329 37.087886 49.267839 69.245135 110.337053
2025-03-09 17.924434 22.050154 27.754722 36.784636 52.114539 81.020353 157.873728
2025-03-16 16.367041 20.510955 26.450341 36.341196 54.502322 93.592858 233.464660
2025-03-23 15.150152 19.272136 25.356726 35.935035 56.769378 107.830937 372.291976
2025-03-30 14.194095 18.288762 24.489520 35.692653 59.257566 125.265985 702.784809
2025-04-06 13.264385 17.245076 23.383425 34.787966 59.999752 138.840570 1477.557721
2025-04-13 12.957637 17.105416 23.703816 36.584020 67.816726 190.831249 NaN
2025-04-20 12.326484 16.401970 22.992558 36.206084 69.979714 224.612662 NaN
2025-04-27 11.866079 15.928241 22.618203 36.444386 74.054566 284.751942 NaN
2025-05-04 11.478726 15.539071 22.345873 36.845047 78.926857 380.593346 NaN
2025-05-11 11.076903 15.104306 21.960483 36.959922 83.178132 519.192333 NaN
2025-05-18 10.626193 14.560042 21.326456 36.401694 84.862598 662.348775 NaN
2025-05-25 10.287809 14.181821 20.967102 36.439463 89.034558 1009.917898 NaN
2025-06-01 9.935478 13.758662 20.486333 36.103893 91.610992 1553.936384 NaN
2025-06-08 9.599481 13.344607 19.990104 35.655373 93.569532 2609.401803 NaN
2025-06-15 9.294447 12.967638 19.537290 35.253414 95.658690 5765.393833 NaN
2025-06-22 9.028698 12.644937 19.166809 35.014763 98.574483 53061.673430 NaN
2025-06-29 8.717571 12.229278 18.585488 34.136723 97.701192 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 8.677464 12.283784 18.943001 35.874914 113.287254 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 8.446285 11.989319 18.571595 35.508740 115.833690 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 8.281024 11.804664 18.413075 35.739189 122.950564 NaN NaN